0

The Math, Graphs, and Code that Strive to Explain Waiting for Subways in NYC

Erik Bernhardsson has been observing phenomenon of NYC’s subway system, analyzing data readily available from the local transit authority’s real-time API. In his latest post he examines the notion of variance – simply put if the train only runs every hour then waiting an hour doesn’t seem like a bother, but if a train runs every 5 minutes then somehow waiting 10 minutes is a bother, even if 10 minutes isn’t a very long wait time.

train_problems

train_factor

Why does it suck to wait for things? In a previous post I analyzed a NYC subway dataset and found that at some point, quite early, it’s worth just giving up.

This isn’t a proof that the subway doesn’t run on time — in fact it might actually proves that the subway runs really well. The numbers indicate that it’s not worth waiting after 10 minutes, but it’s a rare event and usually involves something extraordinary like a multi-hour delay. You should roughly give up after some point related to the normal train frequency, and 10 minutes is not a lot at all. Conversely if the trains ran hourly, it probably would had been worth waiting an hour or more. My analysis gave me a lot of respect for the job MTA is doing.

But there’s another effects that greatly impacts waiting time. The variance. It turns out that the the statistics of waiting makes it very sensitive to variance.

Read more.


Stop breadboarding and soldering – start making immediately! Adafruit’s Circuit Playground is jam-packed with LEDs, sensors, buttons, alligator clip pads and more. Build projects with Circuit Playground in a few minutes with the drag-and-drop MakeCode programming site, learn computer science using the CS Discoveries class on code.org, jump into CircuitPython to learn Python and hardware together, or even use Arduino IDE. Circuit Playground Express is the newest and best Circuit Playground board, with support for MakeCode, CircuitPython, and Arduino. It has a powerful processor, 10 NeoPixels, mini speaker, InfraRed receive and transmit, two buttons, a switch, 14 alligator clip pads, and lots of sensors: capacitive touch, IR proximity, temperature, light, motion and sound. A whole wide world of electronics and coding is waiting for you, and it fits in the palm of your hand.

Join 13,000+ makers on Adafruit’s Discord channels and be part of the community! http://adafru.it/discord

CircuitPython 2019!

Have an amazing project to share? The Electronics Show and Tell with Google Hangouts On-Air is every Wednesday at 7:30pm ET! To join, head over to YouTube and check out the show’s live chat – we’ll post the link there.

Join us every Wednesday night at 8pm ET for Ask an Engineer!

Follow Adafruit on Instagram for top secret new products, behinds the scenes and more https://www.instagram.com/adafruit/


Maker Business — A list of companies owned by Amazon. It’s big.

Wearables — Stitch marks

Electronics — Capacitor ESR

Biohacking — Vitamin-C + Gelatin for Accelerated Recovery

Python for Microcontrollers — Python snakes its way to the STM32, Serpente, and more!

Adafruit IoT Monthly — Adafruit IO Updates, RGB Stream Deck Message Panel, and more

Microsoft MakeCode — Welcome to the MakeCode Newsletter!

Get the only spam-free daily newsletter about wearables, running a "maker business", electronic tips and more! Subscribe at AdafruitDaily.com !



No Comments

No comments yet.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.